Walk-off Balk Blog: Unbridled Pessimism: The Fall of the 2006 Tigers

Unbridled Pessimism: The Fall of the 2006 Tigers
Dan Lewis · 31 July 06

They say you should never go to the grocery store while you’re hungry. When we’re famished we tend to lose objectivity, and when we find ourselves in a warehouse full of foodstuffs, all we can think about is how tasty and delicious it’s all going to be. Such is our mania that we make unreasonable purchases, and after the big hero sandwich we make ourselves once we get home, we gaze upon the once exciting bounty and wonder why we needed two jars of Fluff, one bag of each flavor of potato chips, and two extended-family-sized sacks of frozen boneless chicken thighs.

Maybe I shouldn’t write about the Tigers on a day like today, but I have an awful feeling the team is going to blow it. It’s not only a feeling. It was a feeling not too long ago, but then it became a notion. Now, I am promoting this notion to the position of prediction.

Going into the games on this, the trade deadline day, the Tigers were a Felliniesque 8 1/2 games up in the A.L. Central. I mean Felliniesque not just titularly, in reference to the brilliant 1963 film, but also in the broader sense. Felliniesque as in dream-like, fantastical, and ultimately surreal.

When my team started tearing through the AL in the first month of the season I thought, “Hey, neat! For once I get to watch meaningful baseball in May.”

When they went 19-9 in May I began looking for Allen Funt behind shrubberies in my neighborhood while walking the dog.

When they won 20 games in June I shook my fist at the sky, threatening a god in whom I don’t even believe, and said, “Fine, have it your way. I’ll start expecting this team to win, but so help me you, if the wheels come off I’ll spread the atheist message tirelessly until my dying day and never watch baseball again!”

It is just now August, and after a month of 15-10 baseball I’m forecasting doom. In the immortal words of Mike LaFontaine, “Whaa hhhappen?”

Well, not much. Maybe that’s the problem. Maybe it isn’t, and I’m doing hungry shopping. Today the Tigers traded for Sean Casey instead of making a move for an impact player. The White Sox and Twins won decisively. Kenny Rogers made the second worst run-scoring team look like Murderer’s Row, and the Tigers lineup make Casey Fossum look like Cy Young.

Times like these make me actually sort of envy White Sox fans. After listening to countless hours of Hawk Harrelson endlessly pontificating as to the many ways in which the current White Sox team is the greatest in world history, there’s a general feeling that it is only a matter of time before their boys come through and rise to the top. Instead of realizing that Scott Podsednik is not, in essence, a good ballplayer, and that Pablo Ozuna is not a .400 hitter, they sit back and faithfully wait for what they got last year, the key home run from a Geoff Blum or a Ross Gload.

To me, first place is precarious, almost by definition. It’s an untouchably beautiful, impossibly delicate, thin crystalline decorative egg mounted atop a 6-month long game of Jenga that I am forced to watch. This could say more about me than it says about the Tigers, but I’m certain this feeling doesn’t come entirely from within. I began to think about where this pessimism comes from, and I realized that the potential for collapse that isn’t in my head comes from a roster full of players who have, at the very least, a scary downside and, at the most, severe meltdown possibilities.

Let me count the ways:

Pudge Rodriguez
This is the same guy who drew 9 walks last year. Nine. He’s doing better this year, but he still rarely works a free pass, so his output is heavily dependent on his batting average. It’s been pretty good so far, but he’s getting on in years and has had a few nagging injuries lately. He doesn’t have as much power as he used to, so if he hits .260 he’ll be a serious drag on the already middling offense, especially hitting near the top of the order. He’s still among the best throwing catchers in the game, but no amount of those kind of heroics can make up for the type of “hitting” he did last season.

Sean Casey
A downgrade, probably. I do not understand this trade. Casey generally carries a high but very empty batting average padded with a ton of singles. Last year, in almost 600 plate appearances, he had 41 extra-base hits, including only 9 homers. His batting average carries about a .370 OBP, usually, and because he rarely walks or strikes out, he grounds into an assload of double plays. 27 last year (25 or more constitutes an “assload”).

For reference, Chris Shelton had 35 extra-base hits, including 16 homers, in fewer than 400 plate appearances this year. Shelton is 26 years old, and Casey is 32. They like having another left-handed bat, but I don’t see how Casey is likely to be better than Shelton for the rest of the year.

Not enough downside for you? Casey is currently day-to-day with an oblique injury. Still not enough? The man broke his goddamn back earlier this year.

In two places.

Placido Polanco
I’ll pass. I think he’ll be fine, a solid contributor for the rest of the year. He relies on his batting average quite a bit, too, but it seems like he can flip singles into right-center at will. He slumped earlier this year, but I think that’s over.

Brandon Inge
He is playing Brooks Robinson-level defense at the hot corner, and that sort of thing isn’t typically subject to any kind of extended slump.

The bat is though. He has some pretty good pop (20 bombs so far this year), but Inge fairly regularly goes large chunks of time looking like he has no clue what he’s doing at the plate. He’s has put up a .246/.306/.486 so far this year, which is roughly what I expected of him, so what happens if he goes into a slump relative to these standards? It would kill dozens of rallies and cost the Tiger quite a few runs (up to 2 assloads).

Carlos Guillen
Guillen has been terrific this season, and I don’t see why he would slow down unless he has an injury.

And he always has an injury.

He has a bum knee, and even before the ACL repair two years ago, he was often hobbled by this or that. He usually misses at least a couple dozen games in a season, and so far this year he’s missed very few. He could go down any time.

Marcus Thames
He’s fine, and I think he’ll keep slugging because that’s all he’s done for the last few years. Oddly, he gets jerked around by the Tigers whenever possible, as though they’re unhappy with him. He strikes out a lot, which would be a big deal if he wasn’t drawing a decent number of walks and slugging .580.

Whenever he goes into a mini slump he gets benched, which probably only exacerbates the problem.

Craig Monroe
Monroe is Thames’ doppelganger. Whereas the Tigers look for every opportunity to bench Thames even though he has demonstrated that all he does is murder the ball, they look for every opportunity to play Craig Monroe, who has demonstrated, in 2000 major league plate appearances, that he is terrible. His SLG is 100 points lower than Thames’, and his OBP is 45 points lower. Monroe has been given 75 more plate appearances.

Meltdown potential: he might play too much, which is to say he might play at all. They love him.

Curtis Granderson
I love Curtis Granderson. I expect him to be his good old self, which of course means something will go horribly wrong because the galaxy hates me.

Magglio Ordonez
After having an abdominal muscle operated on last year and, in 2004, having to go to Austria to go through an experimental knee surgery that hasn’t been approved in the United States, what could go wrong?

He has 1 home run in his last 111 at bats.

Dmitri Young
Hasn’t had a good season in three years, just got out of the Betty Ford clinic after being arrested for choking his girlfriend, and swings at everything anywhere near the plate. Read into that what you will. He made three errors last night, and it would have been four if scorers used more common sense.

Kenny Rogers
His 1st half/2nd half ERAs, the last few years:

2006 3.85/10.97
2005 2.54/4.72
2004 4.21/5.46

I registered only a so-so score on the IQ test, but I can still find a pattern, and I have a theory:

He’s old.

Jeremy Bonderman
He’s fine. He’s a hothead prone to big meltdowns when he has one, but otherwise he’s damn good and should stay that way.

Nate Robertson
His 1st half/2nd half ERAs, the last few years:

2006 3.36/6.86
2005 3.35/5.70
2004 4.11/5.79

He isn’t so old, so here’s a different theory:

He’s not good in the second half.

Justin Verlander
He’s been sensational, but he’s never pitched this many innings before. Young pitchers in this situation tend to wear down. If that happens he could see his velocity dip down to a less unhittable 96 mph.

Zach Miner
With this guy there’s always a risk that he remembers he’s a rookie and isn’t supposed to be any good yet. He could turn into Mike Maroth when Maroth returns from the DL, which would be great unless Maroth becomes Mike Maroth again.

Todd Jones
He just isn’t good. The Tigers are going to have to learn this the hard way eventually, which means blown saves, which in turn mean losses. Count on it.

Joel Zumaya
Has started to walk all kinds of batters. I don’t know where this is going.

Fernando Rodney
See above.

Also, he has a BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) of .238. That’s not sustainable.

Well, there are a couple of other guys, but they’re not really worth mentioning here because they either already aren’t very good (and are therefore already “melted down”), or they have very specific roles at which they’ll probably be successful enough in the near future.
—————————————————————————————————-

I don’t think it makes any sense, but I’ve started to melt down before the players have. All I can think of are the classic late season tumbles, the ‘64 Phillies blowing their 6 1/2-game lead in the final two weeks of the season, the ‘69 Cubs coughing up their 9 1/2-game lead starting in August, and the ‘51 Dodgers taking only 7 weeks to surrender 13 1/2 games to the New York Giants.

Those teams have become icons of baseball pathos, their hapless slumps remembered forever while countless ball clubs that were awful for entire seasons and even entire decades have been forgotten. I’ll stop short of saying that life in the losers bracket is better, but I can attest that it’s less complicated. Those seasons, the ones I’ve had for 20 straight years now, are formalities, and even in the absence of drama there are always little things to enjoy. It’s like checking things off on a list and sticking to the basics instead of frantically reaching for all of the glorious, sweet things that await me if I can just make it home.

* * *

Comment

If only they could do something to put you at ease, like come within 5 outs of sweeping the hottest team in baseball and beating Liriano and Sanchez, who make the top of everyone else’s rotation look like #1 and #2.
— j Aug 1, 9:30am #
I get it. #1 and #2. That’s disgusting.

I’m guessing that by “Sanchez” you meant “Santana”. I know it’s easy to get these Latino names mixed up when you don’t have a lot of experience with their cultures, which I suppose can be chalked up to the Bob Jones thing.

J, this team is ripe for collapse. It’s very possible that they will play .500 ball, win 98 games, and lose the division because Chicago or Minnesota won 100. It scares me, that’s all.

But hey, at least I admit that I’m half crazy, or I half admit that I’m totally crazy. I have that much self-awareness. Bear with me. I am not used to this first place thing.

Go Filthy Pejoratives!
— Dan Aug 1, 9:43am #
Yeah, yeah. Sorry about the typo. I must be a racist.

And you ARE going crazy. Here’s how I know: Allen Funt has been dead for 7 years. If you’re poking around in the bushes for him while walking your dog, you’ve got lots more to worry about than 2/5 of the Tigers rotation.
— j Aug 1, 9:47am #
I guess there’s something about the name that makes us smart, at least when it comes to baseball.

Hopefully, my Mets won’t suffer the fate you suggest for your Tigers.
— Dan Lewis (really) Aug 1, 2:12pm #
as a twins fan since their move from washington i couldn’t agree with you more. detroit had a better team in 1987 than the twins and yet, the twins spent october on the big stage while the tigers played golf. better yet, how about the tigers winning the division then having to face santana and liriano five times in a seven game series. you’re right, i can feel the heat from here.
— John Lund Aug 1, 2:15pm #
Well, you make some valid points. It’s just hard for me to admit that the Tigers simply couldn’t go on winning at the pace they were at the beginning of the year. I think we can avoid a total meltdown, but recently, we’ve seen a lot of Detroit teams get screwed. Just look at the Lions from last season. They were leading their division several weeks into the season, and then… well, we all know about their infamous futility.
— ripi$money Aug 1, 2:48pm #
I can completely empathize with your feelings of doom, as I remember the very same thoughts during my Royals’ 2003 run that found them 9 games up at the All-Star break.
My advice, enjoy the ride, because you never know when Verlander will get hurt and turn into Runelvys Hernandez.
— Lee Aug 1, 2:55pm #
Will the real Dan Lewis please stand up?

Not so fast, Mr. Lewis! If that really is your name…

The Mets have some meltdown potential as well, but they still have the star power. In the lineup there are three position players who are all better than Detroit’s best position player (Carlos Guillen). That goes a long way. Plus everyone else in your division stinks compared to the White Sox and the Twins.

‘87 was brutal. The Twins were outscored that year, bu they won it anyway. They are often cited as one of the luckiest teams of all time. Mostly by me, but still, pretty often.

Hey, the playoffs are more of a crapshoot, so for now I’m just thinking about the Division title. I want it. This is not how 7 1/2 games up is supposed to feel. Both the White Sox and the Twins have a legitimate shot to catch the Tigers. Man, that will be a dark day.
— Dan Aug 1, 3:00pm #
re: twins

WE’RE COMING TO GET YOU.
— bill Aug 1, 3:22pm #
re: WE’RE COMING TO GET YOU.
Get in line.
— Moss Aug 1, 3:34pm #
Thank you for pointing out what I wish Jim Leyland would recognize. Marcus Thames is TWICE THE PLAYER Monroe is. In fact, he’s probably the best hitter the Tigers have. He should be batting third behind Granderson and Polonco. It’s frustrating to see a team that doesn’t hit that well waste such a good young hitter.
— Anthony Aug 1, 3:42pm #
Look out now, we’re 7.5 out and climbing.

10 more games with you and we’re 6-3 in the first nine…him…that means we should pick up at least 4 games in head-to-head matchups…
UH OH!!!!!!!!!!
— Jim Thome Aug 1, 4:09pm #
Chris Shelton looks like Corky from Life Goes On. I think that’s the real reason he was sent down.
— Los Aug 1, 4:32pm #
you’re no true tigers fan…confidence brother. twinkies and white sux have no chance.
— father Aug 1, 5:07pm #
So dad, you have confidence? If so, you’re no ture Tigers fan.

Los: good observation on Shelton. He is perhaps the ugliest player in professional baseball. A lot of people will tell you that Randy Johnson is uglier, but when you factor everything in, Shelton edges him.
— Dan Aug 1, 5:26pm #
Red Sox fan here. I know what your saying. I hate Jenga.
— lobsta Aug 1, 5:48pm #
I feel your pain, Dan. I’m trying not to get too excited. Just seen it too many times in my life. Know what I think gives the kiss of death? The article in one of the papers the other day (sorta) comparing Verlander/Zumaya to McClain/Lolich. God’ll strike us down for that.
— restore the roar Aug 1, 5:57pm #
Or if not God, then perhaps Denny will have one of his “business associates” put out a hit on them.
— restore the roar Aug 1, 5:58pm #
Being over .500 is a success…making the playoffs is a greater success…come one now you’re starting to sound like those obnoxious BoSox and Cubs fans.
— GRD Aug 1, 6:33pm #
Dan,

I think I told you some of the reasons I have fear about the Tigers when we met Sunday night (young staff, way too many Ks—by their batters, nothing close to Thome/Konerko/Dye in the middle of the lineup), but I think I also told you about Leyland’s slow walk out of the dugout last Wednesday to say 3 words to Zumaya and how Zumaya responded by getting 3 outs on 9 pitches.
I understand some of your trepidation, but the majority of it is just being in a strange place for the first time in years (first in the division).

I still believe in this team, and even more so in Leyland’s ability to get the most out of them.

Of course, that was me lying in the bushes Sunday night (not Alan Funt), so you might not want to take my word for it.
— Bert Aug 1, 6:33pm #
If you would pray for the Tigers on Sundays outside the Copa, you would have nothing to worry about. Jesus saves! I just wish Todd Jones did. I mean, my God (self), how can a closer have such a crappy ERA? Now Zumaya and Rodney and Rogers are falling apart. Crap. We’re doomed.

OK. Even I’m a pessimist about the Tigers.
— God Aug 1, 7:07pm #
Lirianos missing a start due to elbow problems so stick a fork in them….

Now you just have to hold of the Sox and the Yanks…is winning the WC good enough?
— Dan Z Aug 1, 8:55pm #
You’re an atheist?

No wonder Ty Cobb lives in my cellar.
— God Aug 1, 10:02pm #
An atheist…with faith issues. A rare breed, indeed.

Stop behaving like a woman and enjoy this season.
— Jason Aug 2, 5:54am #
Yes, my lord.

What is it with you people and the misogyny?
— Dan Aug 2, 8:06am #
i’d much rather be in first, playing beyond my abilities and waiting for my inevitable collapse than 20-something games out, wondering what the f#$k happened to that sassy squad i knew just one season ago.

you’re playing with house money, dan – sit back and enjoy the ride. me, i’m gonna go sit in the corner and drink.
— indians fan on suicide watch Aug 2, 8:58am #
I don’t hate women, Dan. But there is something irritating about men imitating them.

Relax, and let the White Sox stress and the Twins worry. After all, we’re still 7.5 games ahead.
— Jason Aug 2, 9:53am #
I know this is picking nits, indians fan, but the Tigers are not “playing beyond” their abilities, which is of course impossible. They are playing consistently near the top of their abilities. The Tigers aren’t doing the impossible, but the improbable. I know what you mean though.

I don’t know what happened to the Indians this year. Their pitching fell apart. Also, they are just plain unlucky. They’ve outscored their opponents, but things just haven’t gone their way. They have a great core of players though, so just take solace in the fact that they should be generally good for the next few years, at least.

Man, that’s going to be a tough division for a while.
— Dan Aug 2, 9:55am #
Fair enough, Jason.

Hey, I readily admitted that I was a little crazy. Now I know why politicians never admit anything. It does nothing to help your image, and people don’t stop giving you shit either way.

Hey, 7.5 games, you’re right. I’ll take it.

Unless…
— Dan Aug 2, 10:03am #
I can understand the doom feeling…the White Sox fans had it all last year. We feel like we’re coming back to Earth now.

Oh, and no one is uglier than Kevin Youkilis. I can’t find any pictures that do him justice, but when I’m watching games, all I can think of is that he stepped out of a Rat Fink drawing.
— Flynn Aug 2, 10:23am #
I think you had more reason to be worried. It’s a miracle the Indians didn’t catch the White Sox last year. It was a series of flukes in the last week or two of the season, combined with the fact that you were already about 10 games ahead of where you really should have been in the first place.

And it continues, somewhat, this year. Mackowiak and Pierzynski have hit like Tony Gwynn, and Ozuna has hit like Ty Cobb.

You are right. Youkilis is no looker, but have you taken a good gander at Chris Shelton? Actually, I know you haven’t because Youkilis looks like Clark Gable in comparison. If you had looked directly into Shelton’s eyes you would have turned to stone.

He’ll pick up plenty of women in Toledo though.
— Dan Aug 2, 1:02pm #
As a White Sox fanatic, I must say it is comforting to hear you talk this way. My beloveds are playing better over the last week but are basically still playing a team full of Shelton’s twins and they have a monster schedule this month.

I think the Twins have the best shot in the playoffs. Solid offense and great pitching. But I wouldn’t count Beuhrle and the boys out yet.
— JD Aug 2, 1:35pm #
I am sorry, but I wish Boo-Early, “the boys”, and you nothing but disappointment and heartbreak.

Wait, I take that back.

I am not sorry, and I meant to include Hawk Harrelson.
— Dan Aug 2, 2:00pm #
Hey you can’t rip on Hawk. Where else can get 30 seconds of silence followed by an absolute pearl like “Hunker up and cinch it down”? Plus last season he had eye surgery and went back and forth between looking like an old pirate and wearing Elton John’s sunglasses.

I looove that duck.
— JD Aug 2, 2:10pm #
I have to weigh in for the Cardinals on this topic. Although we have made some sweet moves here before the deadline, I.E. Jeff Weaver, Ron (Fattie)Belliard, and Jorge Sosa. Oh wait you mean trading Hector Luna for a way older version of Hector Luna isn’t a good trade, And Weaver pitched awesome for ,eehh the Tigers? right. Hopefully Sosa gets moved into the rotation so we can send Weaver back to the trailer park.

And believe it or not, the well the Cards will still win the NL central cause everyone else is so bad line, is not comforting.
— Witko Aug 4, 7:06am #
Why is that not comforting? Do you realize how you sound when you say that? The Tigers’ record dwarfs the Cards’ record, and if we go on any sort of slide we’re in trouble. You’re going to take the NL Central. Be happy about it.

Not Jocketty’s best effort, to be sure. The Belliard deal is a little baffling. Given that they gave away a player several years younger in a challenge trade, maybe they know something the Indians don’t. I mean, Luna is maybe having his best season, but how much better is Belliard going to get? I’m amazed that his defensive numbers have been what they have, what with his girth. It makes no sense. He seems like the type of player who will become visibly painful to watch at second base very soon…

With the pitchers I think they’re just trying to catch lightning in a bottle. You might as well go for Sosa and see what Duncan can do for him, given the alternatives. No one questions Sosa’s stuff. As for Weaver, well, he was a pretty good pitcher not a terribly long time ago, as opposed to, say, Sir Sidney.
— Dan Aug 4, 10:53am #
Come on, whats the point of complaining about a GREAT SEASON?
Last time i checked, being a Detroit Tigers fan was the worse thing next to going to hell. Sure we’ve got some corners we need to fix, but when was the last time you’ve seen comerica park sell out 95% of the season attendance? oh thats right. NEVER! Baseball is about fun friend, its about showing your talent, and showing your patience. You want to stress important excellence on detroit sports. go start a blog for the Detroit Red Wings where they are EXPECTED to be the best. I respect your oponions on your players, but one…and they call him MR. CLUTCH now, but the fact of the matter is baseball greatness in detroit was like the circus coming into town for us to watch, but now it’s as if the circus moved to detroit, and i’m STILL in awe. The best moments in life can be the ones we get our hopes up on the most. You win some and you lose some.

(in gods words – god giveth and god taketh-)

Even if some of the players we have dont deserve what you consider respect. you have to give it to them anyways. The Tigers have made it to where they are by one thing alone.

Practice = hard work
Friendship = Togetherness.

All equaling the sum of (((Talent)))

or it could be an atheist favorite
fate

but look were fate landed GOD.
He rode it pretty good, but times got rough, and landed in a bad spot. Now hes the most popular person in human history.
says an almost faithful lutheran

bottom line—————-
everygame they’ve played this year was better then everygame they’ve played last year. THATS GOOD ENOUGH FOR THIS DETROIT’ER! Stop crying about the bad times, and start giving chance where chance has been respectively earned.
IN THE WORLD SERIES.

I cant remember where i heard this from, but take this to heart.

“You win some and you lose some, but you live, and you live to fight another day”
— mike haines Sep 5, 12:58am #
one more thing!

Zach Minor…2 words…

as respectively as i can be
on his position as a
STARTING PITCHER…

get f**ked.

I might as well go to the Tigers annual tryouts for non-agent people and try to earn a spot on the pitching roster. just so i can be denied and complain of how much of a better job i did then ZACH MINOR.

maybe he just rubbed me wrong

like my ex-girlfriend
— mike haines Sep 5, 1:12am #
guess what today is?

it’s ‘dan lewis is a narrcissitic fool day!!!!’

go tigers.
— umomz Oct 7, 5:56pm #
october 7th was
“dan lewis is a narrcissitic fool day”

October 8th is

dan is a band wagon fan day

what’s in store for October 9th?????
— mike haines Oct 8, 7:48pm #

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Unbridled Pessimism: The Fall of the 2006 TigersDan Lewis · 31 July 06

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Unbridled Pessimism: The Fall of the 2006 Tigers
Dan Lewis · 31 July 06